Zhao Sheng: Cognitive Revolution and Future Technology Trends

Mr. Zhao Sheng, Chairman of Huashi International

by the business community The “2018 Business Leaders New Year Forum” jointly hosted by the media and Guizhou Liquor was held at the Chongqing International Convention and Exhibition Center from January 24th to 25th. “Business App is the only mobile information platform designated by the conference. It will release the on-site dry goods and dynamics as soon as possible.

The following is a speech by Mr. Zhao Sheng, Chairman of the Board of Directors of Huashi International:

First of all, I am very grateful to the invitation of the business media. I have been in the United States for the past ten years. Today I am sharing with you from the perspective of Silicon Valley. What is the technical trend in my eyes?

This is an era of nuclear fusion. I divide the courses that entrepreneurs learn into five categories. The first is philosophy courses, the second is management courses, the third is macro courses, and the fourth is finance. The fifth major is the science and technology curriculum. Today, I am looking at the fifth angle to see how these masters of technology in the United States, Kevin · Kelly, these technology prophets, recognize and perceive the world.

What the future is, an American author is very simple to write, and the future is the trend. Dividing hard trends and soft trends, such as artificial intelligence, blockchains are hard trends, and will soon come, soft trends like immigration Mars.

At the Science and Technology Conference last year, General Secretary Xi Jinping talked about the future development of China, which is to realize China through the guidance of science and technology. The rise of culture. What really changed our society was the first industrial revolution that opened in London, England 240 years ago. In 1784, the steam engine was put into use for the first time. In 1860, electricity was discovered. The electricity was discovered to be Industrial 2.0. In 1969, it entered the information age, called Industry 3.0. In 2013, the fourth industrial revolution, computer and Internet was opened.

This is the stage of the evolution of the entire technological revolution.

Standing in Silicon Valley, look at the 100-year trend from 2000 to 2100, divided into five phases. The first stage is the Internet, which connects people and people. The online shopping we use today is the convenience brought by the Internet. The second is the Internet of Things, the Internet of Everything. The third is artificial intelligence, human-machine integration, people are more and more like machines, machines are more and more like people. The fourth stage is biotechnology, which comes from the revolution of genes. The fifth stage is space science, a revolution from the colonization of the planet.

The replacement of the central city of the Western world, the first is religion, the place where the soul of the Western world is stored, and Judaism is called 1.0 religion. The second is Western philosophy in the 6th century BC. The third is Florence, the road to the Renaissance. The fourth is London, the fifth is New York, the sixth is San Francisco, and my personal prediction for the next center is Shenzhen.

Last year, the Chinese government had three major events. The first was the 19th National Congress. It proposed the Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macau Bay Area and the leader was Shenzhen. Someone asked, why did you have such a point of view? There is a research model in Shenzhen and San Francisco. They are both immigrant cities and seaside cities. They are all innovative cities with relatively rich resources.

We often say in Silicon Valley that HP is a senior company and Google is a middle-aged company. Looking at Shenzhen according to this logical model, Vanke is an old company, Huawei is a middle-aged company, and Tencent is a youth company. The innovations of Shenzhen’s drones, Huada Gene, and Building Technology far exceed those of Hangzhou and Beijing. So the next central city in the world should be Shenzhen.

I personally have four prophecies: First, in 2035, China’s GDP is about the same as the United States, each about $30 trillion, each accounting for about 25% of the world. Second, in 2025, there will be no manufacturing factories in China with more than 1,000 people. Third, in 2030, Shenzhen will become the first city in Asia. Fourth, in the next 10 years, the most important technology track in the world is smart cars, no other.

You can imagine that Lei Jun said that the first place in the global mobile phone is Apple last month, the second is Huawei, the third is Samsung, the fourth is OPPO, the fifth is VIVO, and the sixth is Xiaomi. There are four companies in China. After 10 years, the auto industry is not like this. I think it should be like this. It is not Volkswagen or Toyota that changes the car. Maybe 10 years later, half of the world’s top ten cars are from China, which is a huge vent.

The mystery of the three future leaders of the Chinese Internet. The first one, 10 years later, Baidu map and Gaode map, who can become the market leader? Definitely Baidu. The second one, 10 years later, Tencent Voice and Keda Xunfei, who can become a market leader, I personally think it is Tencent voice. Third, 10 years later, Alibaba Cloud, Tencent Cloud and Huawei Cloud will win. I think the first is Alibaba Cloud and the second is Huawei Cloud.

The road to the future is more important than knowledge. Read Wan Wan Road, Wan Li Road, the book has its own gold house. The dean of the Renmin University of China Institute went to Europe and came back to write an article that spread widely. He said that this is an era of knowledge depreciation and value-added knowledge.

By 2050, everyone receives 10,000 times more information today. So 30 years later, the real winner is someone who can process information quickly. Today, things around the world are not inadequate, but surplus. Algorithms are more important than data, and imagination is more important than understanding. What really determines the future is imagination, and imagination is the source of the future.

A lot of people ask me, you talk about so many trends about technology, what kind of track do you tell me the most important? There are about 120-140 technologies in the future. I personally think that there are four technologies that are most important. The first is smart manufacturing, the second is blockchain, the third is artificial intelligence, and the fourth is cancer treatment. These four tracks will be able to see 10 billion in the next 10 years.The emergence of hundreds of billions of dollars of companies, especially the current blockchain, re-constructed production relations.

The second chapter, the source of the cognitive revolution. Three fundamental questions about future cognition, who am I? How do I connect with the world? How do I imagine myself?

The connection between everyone and the world today is based on two points: the first is cognition, the first The second is perception. If there are chips in the head, there are two ways we interact with the world, one is the way people interact, and the other is the way artificial intelligence interacts.

On how to imagine yourself, this question is open-ended. In the future, everyone can look at the definition of cognition. Cognition is the hottest word at the moment. Cognitive science spans six disciplines and produces 11 interdisciplinary subjects. The artificial intelligence profession spans more disciplines and becomes the most important profession in the future.

Artificial intelligence talent is now very expensive, artificial intelligence talent is limited in the world, and all enterprises will become artificial intelligence enterprises. Artificial intelligence is a penetrating technology, and the underlying is data and algorithms.

The biggest feature we read today is fragmentation, and WeChat reading will make us superficial. Robots They are discussing religion, philosophy and beliefs, human beings become vulgar, fragmented and impetuous, and robots become more profound. Therefore, in the final stage of the development of artificial intelligence, the problem is not a legal issue, nor a commercial issue, but an ethical issue.

People are degrading, and all networked machine IQs can reach a thousand. We are slowly evolving according to evolution, and there are children with disabilities among the children born. But the machine is not like this, it can be optimized.

Alpha dogs can iterate over 16 versions in three months. The biggest challenge for us is that evolution is not so fast. The half-life of medical knowledge is 45 years. As a doctor today, the occupational impact is still small, but education, the Internet and other professions are challenged. This is an era of knowledge payment.

How is knowledge formed? The first is experience, the second is experience, and the third is travel. We saw some parents in Shanghai who took their children to France. They thought that these children stayed in France for a month, much better than staying at school for a year.

In essence, it is cognition, which is a contest of thinking patterns, not a contest of knowledge structures. There is no doubt that the gap between people and people has become greater, not smaller, and the pattern has changed as the human-machine-integrated artificial intelligence revolution has arrived.

In a second, people who can see the essence of the world, and those who can’t see the essence for a lifetime, live a completely different life. Knowledge, insight and cognition, knowledge is the first layer, knowledge is the second layer, and cognition is the important source of the gap between everyone.

The most important word in the next 30 years from Silicon Valley to China to Europe is cognition. Cognition is related to artificial intelligence. There is no essential difference between people. The biggest difference comes from cognitive differences.

The goal of every entrepreneur is to broaden the boundaries of cognition. I wrote books on the plane, wrote things before I got on the plane, and many of them were torn off after I got off the plane because my perception changed.

I have a lot of courses in China, many people ask me, what is science, what is technology? Science And technology are two concepts.

From science to technology, from technology to application, from application to business, is such a logic. The core of Germany is Industry 4.0, which originally sold equipment and now sells software solutions. Software and hardware integration, Germany most wants to sell the technical standards of the industrial bottom, we compete with Germany in the field of intelligent manufacturing.

Japan is an ingenious country that does one thing infinitely well. My personal point of view, here is Chongqing, the robot made of Mapo tofu, may defeat all the Sichuan masters. If a robot can fire 200,000 times of Mapo tofu, it will calculate and summarize. It knows what kind of temperature, what kind of water will make the tofu taste better, this is artificial intelligence. Penetration in all industries.

We’ve been running around with mobile phones for the past ten years, and smart cars are taking us around for the next decade.

Everyone works 24 hours a day, three ways of working, the first is at home, the second is on the road, and the third is at the company. China Eastern Airlines and Air China have fully opened WIFI, so aircraft, high-speed rail and cars have all been redefined. Today, there are two words that are very hot, "redefined and "refactoring.

Global Technology Innovations: Artificial Intelligence, Robotics and Biotechnology. The United States is a robot, a human brain plan, and artificial intelligence. Germany is Industry 4.0. The ambitions of the United States and Germany, the future of the three countries in China, the United States and Germany are all based on basic research and development.

Six core technologies that affect the future, information technology, industrial technology, biotechnology, energy technology, materials technology and space technology.

Information technology has changed the world. German cars have not changed in the past 50 years. When new energy vehicles come, they start from another path, such as Tesla.

Biotechnology, the editing of genes, is called the scissors of God by scientists at Harvard University. Think of people as a piece of software that can be edited, including genes. So cancer is just a certain flaw in some aspects of our genes. It must be a high-tech company to get cancer. The logic is also the way to get the car.

Editing the word, the business media is a media company, the editor is divided into three stages, the first is the editor of the media, the second is the robot editor, and the third is the gene editor. There are many editors in the traditional magazine, the first stage edits the text, the second stage robot editor, the third stage to editgene.

Whether it is the Internet or artificial intelligence, human beings are transforming the outside world, but genetic editing is the outside of technology that changes people themselves. Powerful technology companies, Apple, Google, Microsoft, Amazon, Facebook, Tencent and Alibaba. They are not just a platform company, but an omnipotent super infrastructure company.

A company like Tencent will achieve the achievements of the British Empire 240 years ago. Perhaps we will usher in a company with a market value of more than $5 trillion, and Apple, which has the highest market value today, is worth $800 billion.

Artificial intelligence is the mechanism and law of exploring human intelligence activities, constructing artificial intelligence inspired by human brain. From the perspective of artificial intelligence, all industries should be redone once, and new productivity emerges.

From Internet + to Artificial Intelligence +, it penetrates all industries, finance, smart manufacturing, hospitals, education, transportation, energy and retail. We are ushered in a new era of cognition. Knowledge is more important than knowledge, and imagination is more important than understanding.

The future of technology trends, we are facing the United States and Germany, China has three companies with a market value of 100 billion US dollars in the Internet industry.

New species will be produced in the future. This is a golden age. I am completely optimistic about China. We are welcoming a robotic era in which robots and biological robots are symbiotic.

Will human society usher in the renaissance of the past? Will China use this round of technological revolution to complete China’s upgrade? Achieve a great Chinese dream? I personally think that the next golden age is in sight. .

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