Since President Xi Jinping and Trump shook hands, the renminbi rose more than 1200 points in the past two days, and the import cost of softwood fell by about 25 yuan. It seems to be a good thing for importers. In fact, it may not be necessary. The problem needs to be dialectically.
The core of the price rises and falls depends on supply and demand. At present, the demand in the US market is sluggish. More timber is only dumped in China, more The amount of the country’s original exports to the United States also came to China, and the supply of foreign countries to China increased.
At the end of November, the inventory of Taicang Port was around 960,000 square meters. The radiation effect of Taicang on Henan, Sichuan and Hubei was obviously weakened, and the current inventory is still at a high level; even these two Monthly stocks will decline, but after the Spring Festival, the probability will return to more than one million squares, and the real stock will fall to the relative safe range of 750,000 square meters. It is estimated that next summer may not be possible. The stock is not low.
At present, domestic demand is not prosperous, merchants generally feel that the market is not prosperous in the peak season, the downturn of domestic real estate affects the demand for timber in the whole industry chain such as timber construction, decoration, furniture, doors and windows, and domestic strict inspection of environmental protection The demand for less processing plants is difficult to recover in a short period of time; The demand is reduced.
From the trader’s mentality, at present, in the downtrend channel, most of the purchases do not buy up, not to mention that there is no reasonable price difference between the purchase price and the sales price in the downtrend, 2015 In the first half of the year, when the purchase price is lower than the sales price by more than 100 yuan, it may not necessarily bottom out. Moreover, Russian timber fell from the previous 285 US dollars to 240 US dollars. Some merchants felt that they had fallen a lot, and there was a scale-up behavior. Today, the price of more than 220 US dollars has come out again. The next stage of arrival is still there. Under normal circumstances, it can only be the bottom when everyone is scared. It is too early to see.
After the renminbi has risen, it can be said that it has broken away from the “7” risk, but it is still difficult to get stronger all the way. It is estimated that there will be support around 6.80. It is not easy for a timber importer to lose hundreds of thousands of votes. I hope that it will not be numb and be cautious.
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